Abstract：Tourism is a sensitive industry to environment. Such sensitivity is reflected in the impact coming from inside and outside the environment which would result in serious decay called as tourism crisis. With the development of society and economy, the tourism crisis by accident is more frequent and is becoming a key factor influencing tourism development. In this paper, the concept of tourism crisis driven by accident is defined and it is classified into two types as background outsourced crisis and scenery inner-source crisis. The lifecycle of tourism crisis is described and divided into 5 stages from birth to vanishing. They are gestation stage, revealing stage, bursting stage, decay stage and disappearing stage. Based on Butler's tourist destination life cycle theory, the author indicates the strike and concave vale of tourism crisis in various stages. After analyzing the flaws of neighboring year comparison method, the author puts forward the post-evaluation based on the theory of background curve and 4 indexes for tourism crisis are given out in the paper, which are absolute amount and relative rate of loss, length of crisis period and timetable of crisis loss. As a case study, the response of Qin's Terra-cotta Museum to tourism crisis by accident is very typical in China for last 25 years, the three tourism background trend curves were founded, including inbound tourists, domestic tourist and tourism income, the post evaluation of three tourism crisis by accident to the tourism development of Qin's Terra-cotta Museum was carried out, such as June 4 Event in 1989, Asia Finance Crisis in 1998 and SARS Pestilence in 2003, the losses of tourist arrivals, tourism incomes and impact time-table are revealed. The results show: the impact period of June 4 Event in 1989 is 2-3 years, the loss of inbound tourists is 3.98 million person-times, the domestic tourists is 7.88 million person-times, the loss of entrance fee income is RMB 76.25 million Yuan; the influence of Asia Finance Crisis in 1998 to the tourism industry lasted 2-3 years, the loss of inbound tourists is 1.23 million person-times, the domestic tourists is 2.04 million person-times, the loss of entrance fee receipt is RMB 151.71 million Yuan; the shock of SARS Pestilence in 2003 to the tourism industry is 1-2 years, the loss of inbound tourists is 4.48 million person-times, the domestic tourists is 7.03 million person-times, the loss of entrance fee income is RMB 604.57 million Yuan. As the attribute of emergent event is different, the strike and impact in timetable and losses in inbound tourism and domestic tourism are not similar, the impact of politics and public health event is greater than that of natural disaster in inbound tourism. This work is providing an example for the post evaluation of tourism crisis in year scale.
孙根年. 论旅游危机的生命周期与后评价研究[J]. 人文地理, 2008, 23(1): 7-12.
SUN Gen-nian. RESEARCH ON LIFECYCLE AND POST-EVALUATION OF TOURISM CRISIS BY EMERGENT EVENT. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2008, 23(1): 7-12.
